Forecast of Economic Operation of China's Steel Industry in the Second Half of 2014

Abstract Introduction: Recently, the decision-making layer has continuously released signals to strengthen macroeconomic regulation and control. After a series of intensive “micro-stimulus” policies were introduced, the macroeconomic data released last week showed conspicuous performance. On June 13, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the cancellation of May...
Introduction: Recently, the decision-making layer has continuously released signals to strengthen macroeconomic regulation and control. After a series of intensive “micro-stimulus” policies were introduced, the macroeconomic data released last week showed conspicuous performance. On June 13, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on consumption and investment in May. At this point, the main economic indicators in May were basically released. In addition to the growth rate of investment, other major indicators were mainly rebounded, and a number of indicators also hit a new high for the year. The Chinese economy has stabilized in the short term in the second quarter and has become a market consensus.

In view of the importance of investment to China's economic growth, real estate investment and industrial investment have dragged down fixed asset investment this year. The data show that from January to May, the national fixed asset investment did not include 153.716 billion yuan of farmer households, a nominal increase of 17.2% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped by 0.1 percentage points from January to April. Among them, the decline in real estate investment is particularly obvious. Data show that from January to May, the national real estate development investment was 3,073.9 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 14.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 1.7 percentage points from January to April. The decline in real estate will affect investment in areas such as steel.

China's steel market forecast in the second half of 2014

From the overall situation, the macro economy is returning to a steady state, but the downward pressure is still relatively large. In the steel market, in May, domestic steel market demand growth was slow, but steel production remained high, steel social inventories continued to decline, and steel prices fluctuated downward.

Despite the pressure of sluggish demand and credit tightening, China's crude steel output in May rose 2.6% year-on-year to a record high of 70.43 million tons. In the second quarter, the peak season of steel consumption, coupled with the decline in the prices of raw materials such as ore, increased the profitability of steel, and stimulated the enthusiasm of steel enterprises. From the overall situation, the oversupply situation in the steel market has not changed significantly, and steel prices are difficult to rise.

In terms of raw materials, iron ore prices dropped significantly in the first half of the year. The price of imported iron ore has been declining for the fourth consecutive month, and the price of iron ore has fallen back. This has weakened the support of steel prices, and it is difficult to maintain steel prices.

At present, the overall mentality of the steel market is weak. In the later period, the oversupply situation in the domestic market will not change significantly. The sharp rise in steel prices is difficult, and it will still be in a low-level fluctuation. However, with the arrival of the second half, many favorable factors are superimposed. Steel prices are expected to pick up, steel prices are expected to rise, steel companies are expected to turn losses into profits.

Short-term economic growth still needs to be supported by easing policies. The best way for local governments to maintain growth is to use fiscal policies and other means to speed up infrastructure construction. As a result, infrastructure projects recently opened have begun to increase.

Accelerating the launch of infrastructure projects, the issue of the availability of financial funds is very important. Earlier on May 28, the Ministry of Finance announced documents requiring local governments to speed up the expenditures on infrastructure projects and other budgets. The document is clear. At the beginning of this year, some of the budgets of the specific units were not implemented at the beginning of this year. The budget funds must be allocated to all regions and departments before June 30, and they have not been implemented to departments and units beyond September 30 without justification. In addition to the actual settlement project, all the total budget is recovered. The central bank will also reduce the RRR twice in the short term and activate the credit market, which will also drive the demand for various steel industries.

Since March, a series of “micro-stimulus” policies have gradually been introduced. It is expected that the second half of the year will begin to show results, so this will inevitably promote the growth of steel demand in the second half of the year, coupled with the improvement of its national environmental standards, law enforcement efforts, some of the lack of backward production capacity of environmental protection will be somewhat inhibited, and China's crude steel Production has begun to fall, so this will inevitably lead to an increase in steel production capacity inhibition.

In general, the current downturn in the steel market, but the downstream demand is very weak, the port inventory of imported mines remains high, the steel price lacks obvious upward momentum, and the market vitality cannot be discussed. After June, the second half of the year will strengthen the implementation of the micro-stimulus policy that has been introduced, which is conducive to the improvement of the physical industry environment. In particular, shantytown renovation, railway construction, etc. will strongly support steel prices to stabilize and stabilize.

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