On December 21, EnergyTrend released the latest PV industry chain price. The average price of polysilicon is still 146 yuan/kg. The long-term lock-in market transaction volume is small. The average price of diamond-line multi-chip is 4.9 yuan/piece, and the demand for price continues to rise, 180Î¼m single crystal. The average price of silicon wafers is 5.6 yuan/piece, and the average price of PERC single crystal batteries is 1.93 yuan/watt, which is the biggest drop. The average price of ordinary single crystal cells and high-efficiency polycrystalline batteries is 1.72 yuan/watt; the average price of single crystal components is 2.85 yuan. / watt, with polycrystalline price difference of 0.08 yuan / watt, close to the price-performance standard value of 0.06 yuan / watt.
According to market research feedback, small-scale monocrystalline silicon wafer manufacturers have already quoted 335 yuan/piece of 180Î¼m silicon wafer, which is still difficult to ship; the leading monocrystalline silicon wafer factory cautiously announced price cuts again, and turned to the way of battery factory OEM, through low Valuation component shipments to clear inventory. According to PVInfoLink analysis, the recent market for single crystals is weak, because the price of single crystal cells has dropped to the same price as polycrystals, but the price of upstream monocrystalline silicon wafers is still higher than the 0.4-0.7 yuan/piece of polycrystalline silicon wafers cut with diamond wires. Battery manufacturers can't make a profit or even lose money, and the profit of foundry is also thin. The fundamental reason is that the demand for downstream single crystals has dropped sharply. More severe than the ordinary single crystal situation is the PERC single crystal, both domestic and foreign markets are blocked, and the price has fallen and then fell. According to the data of Gaixi Consulting, the proportion of polycrystalline components in October accounted for 80.52%, and the proportion of single crystals was 17.83%. The PVInfoLink report confirmed this view, saying that cross-strait battery manufacturers have adjusted their product strategies this month. Some manufacturers' single-core PERC production lines will cut operating rates or switch back to conventional single crystals. However, this will further squeeze the original demand. Large conventional single crystal products have made some conventional monocrystalline cell manufacturers have to switch back to polycrystalline or shut down some production lines in the case of low prices. In an interview with a domestic PV company CEO, he even said that the monocrystalline silicon wafer enterprises want to quickly reverse the current unfavorable market situation, and need to drop to the same price as the diamond wire cutting silicon wafer as soon as possible. According to calculations, the cost of the photovoltaic power system BOS is 0.03 yuan / watt, converted into a component power difference of 5 watts; the current mainstream single polycrystalline component wattage difference is 10 watts, converted into component price/performance ratio standard deviation of 0.06 yuan / watt. In 2016, the efficiency of single polycrystalline cells was 1%-1.5%. In 2017, polycrystalline fully completed the diamond-cut polysilicon wafer and black silicon technology. The silicon wafer was reduced by 20%, and the efficiency was increased by 0.3%-0.6%. The efficiency of the single crystal is poor, and the standard deviation of the single polycrystal is estimated to decrease from 0.6 yuan/piece to 0.4 yuan/piece. According to PVInfoLink analysis, the price of monocrystalline silicon wafers and components has not fallen below the cost-performance standard, which is the main cause of shipping difficulties. According to PVInfoLink, the production capacity of monocrystalline silicon wafers was only 25 GW at the end of 2016. However, when the production capacity of 2017Q1-Q2 monocrystalline silicon wafers did not start to grow significantly, the demand rose rapidly, and monocrystalline silicon wafers were in short supply in the first half of the year. situation. With the expansion of production capacity of Longji and Central in the second half of this year, the monocrystalline wafer production capacity has reached 45 GW at the end of the year, and the capacity will continue to expand next year. However, according to PVInfoLink statistics, the new installed capacity of 2017 single crystal is 29 GW, and the new market share is less than 30%. The actual output is far lower than the announced production capacity, and the overcapacity of monocrystalline silicon wafers is highlighted. According to market research, orders for leading polysilicon wafer factories in the first quarter of 2018 have been saturated, and the price of the industrial chain has remained stable; the price of single crystals, especially the price of single crystals of PERC, has further declined.
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